BLACK SWAN

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major effect, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.

We spent a lot of time at a dinner party Saturday night discussing this theory.

(Menu was butternut squash soup, stuffed chicken breasts with cherry glaze, Israeli couscous, cucumber, leek and pear salad with granny apple dressing, fruit tart)

Is Hurricane Sandy a black swan, an October surprise or just a horrible storm? Of course, global warming comes into play.

What event would you categorize as a black swan? The classic example is 9/11.